Monday, April 18, 2011

Pg. 153-158

When Fischer started at Goldman Sachs he first wanted to focus on eliminating the "noise" to improve their trading. He wanted to make sure there was no unnecessary information that would make trading more difficult. As Fischer did this he decided that there were two ways for a company to profit from trading in the long run. One was from taking advantage of intervention on the part of central banks, and the other was profit from "flow" trading. Flow trading happens when a trader is actively participating in a market, and then said trader uses his experience to anticipate price changes. From this theory he formed an idea of two types of traders, a "news" trader, and a "nice" trader. These types of traders end up being similar to the types of traders that a colleague of Fischer's created. Jack Treynor thought up the information based trader, and the value based trader. The information based trader takes advantage of inefficiencies in information, and the value based trader takes advantage of valuing inefficiencies. Both Fischer and Treynor came to the same conclusion that the central issue was the price, or value, of time. This lead to another theory on Fischer's part of what a market could look like in the future. His idea of a future market is one where there is an indexed limit order where there would be an urgency rate for each specific order. High urgency orders will cost more, encouraging more "slow" trading. Thus all securities and the price of time will have price schedules based on the urgency of the order.

1 comment:

  1. A for Braley.

    I guess you mean pp. 253-258.

    There's a really interesting idea of how to spot an arbitrage opportunity here. Think up a specific sort of possible inefficiency, and try to explain it to someone else. If they get it, then other people probably do too, and there probably is no arbitrage opportunity. If they don't get your explanation, trade like crazy!

    I also like Mehrling's dichotomy of value and information based traders: the former choose the price at which they will trade, while the latter choose the time. That difference creates an arbitrage opportunity.

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