Thursday, March 24, 2011

Pages 175- 178

Fischer's 1920 proposal for stabilizing the Dollar and Modigliani's plan for international monetary reform were quite similar in the extent that both attempted to build an international system allowing the US to use monetary policy for domestic stabilization. However, while Fischer wanted to link the dollar price to a domestic price index, Modigliani's preference was on an international one. To this regard, commenting on Modigliani's plan, Fischer said that barriers (to trade , to international movement of capital goods, to foreign ownership of a country's assets) were all deficiencies of an international economic system,". In Fischer best international monetary system, although there would be a multiplicity of nation units, we would face a true equilibrium. Indeed, it would exist only one world market for risk-free borrowing and lending (at a single risk free rate of interest), as well as a single world capital market, a single world market portfolio and a single world price of risk. Thus, for Fischer it is clear that both fixed and flexible exchange rates might be compatible with the idea of equilibrium.

On the other hand, moving from his vision of international capital market equilibrium, Fischer started to deal with the monetary approach to the balance of payments. For him the idea of monetarism at the world level, was not relevant, because no flows of international reserves should be necessary to equate supply and demand, and the money supply should remain endogenous. But soon this theory of passive money created controversy because of the absence of any explanation for prices, inflation and exchange rates.

1 comment:

  1. A for Tom.

    What's going on here is that the breakdown of fixed exchange rates is the big economic story of the early 1970s (until the Arab oil embargo). Black prefers the flexible exchange rate system we continue to have, but he sees both as workable (if government would stop interfering and distorting prices).

    But, he also see opportunities for risk-free profits (positive alpha) if you can figure out how to get around those distortions.

    In particular (and this is poorly explained), governments like to implement capital controls; restrictions on investment capital leaving or entering a country. This restriction leads to differences in rates that can be arbitraged. What Fischer envisioned was a mutual fund that could do this.

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